Crystal Ball or Mindset – The Real Value of Hindsight

How often do you hear the phrase “it is easy to say that with the benefit of hindsight…”. Of course there is truth in this statement but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

 

Why do humans resist change?

We typically fear change as humans. It is how we are wired. Routine is safe, change brings uncertainty and uncertainty brings risk. A major problem with this mindset today is that it limits our ability to be open-minded and innovate.

Here are a few reasons why we just love to stick to what we know and resist attempts that take us away from a perceived comfort zone:

  1. Loss aversion: People tend to be more afraid of losing something than they are motivated by the potential to gain something. This can make it difficult for people to make changes, even if those changes could bring about positive outcomes.
  2. Confirmation bias: People have a tendency to seek out information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs and to ignore information that contradicts those beliefs.
  3. Status quo bias: People tend to prefer things to stay the same and have a bias towards maintaining the status quo. This can make it difficult for them to make changes, even if those changes could bring about positive outcomes.

Mix these with good old-fashioned self-interest and you have a powerful barrier to change.

 

What is the cost of sticking to what you know?

Sometimes these attitudes don’t appear to generate a real cost. Here are a few examples though where it wasn’t just costly but it meant the end.

  1. Kodak: failed to adapt to the rise of digital photography and eventually went bankrupt
  2. Blockbuster: failed to adapt to the rise of streaming services and eventually went out of business
  3. Blackberry: failed to adapt to the rise of smartphone competitors and eventually lost market share

 

Crystal Ball or Growth Mindset?

It is fair to say that innovation is not predictable and so companies do not all stand the test of time.

The point here though is that each example above followed a clear decision to stick with what they thought was superior rather than displaying a growth mindset and being open to learning and accepting none of us have all the answers.